[ET Net News Agency, 03 July 2026] US non-farm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, lower than the expected 113,000, marking the weakest performance this year, though the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The latest interest rate swaps indicate that the chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in July dropped to approximately 20% from 33% before the data was released. Hong Kong stocks extended their rally, surging by over 400 points at one point during the session before the gains narrowed slightly. The HSI closed the half-day session up 361 points, or 1.6%, at 23,416, with turnover on the main board reaching nearly HKD 166.1 billion. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index stood at 7,737, up 125 points or 1.6%. The Hang Seng Tech Index stood at 4,544, up 90 points or 2%.
"Kingston Lin: Do not let guard down as HSI rebounds slightly, watch Hong Kong stock performance during August earnings season"
As rate hike expectations cooled, the HSI showed signs of improvement this week and continued to rise today. Kingston Lin, a director of the Hong Kong Institute of Financial Analysts and Professional Commentators Limited, told ET Net News Agency that with the end of the half-year window, market capital is undergoing new deployments. Furthermore, following recent reports that Meta is actively planning to enter the cloud computing market with plans to sell its excess artificial intelligence computing power and model usage rights, AI hardware stocks have been affected, causing capital to rotate into traditional technology stocks among the heavyweights of the HSI, which in turn drove the HSI upwards. In addition, after the US announced its latest non-farm payroll figures, the market expects a low probability of a rate hike in September, causing the US dollar to weaken and capital to subsequently flow into Hong Kong stocks, benefiting the HSI.
Kingston Lin pointed out that although the HSI has shown some signs of improvement over the past two days, it does not mean there are no worries for the third quarter, and investors must absolutely not let their guard down. The most critical aspect now is to observe whether the HSI can firmly hold the two support levels of 23,000 and 22,500. If it successfully holds these levels, the next step is to pay attention to the earnings season in August; if Hong Kong stocks can still stabilise at that time, the index could look up towards the 24,000 level and around the 20-day moving average. Kingston Lin emphasised that although the news of Meta selling computing power slightly shook the stock market to a certain extent, he maintains that data centres are definitely not saturated yet, market demand for computing power remains, and AI hardware stocks are still the dominant trend in the long run.
"Post-lock-up trends require attention to liquidity"
July not only marks the conclusion of the half-year window but also brings a wave of lock-up expirations for newly listed stocks. Next week, three popular stocks will face their lock-up expiration periods, namely Zhipu (02513), MINIMAX (00100), and Iluvatar CoreX (09903). Following the expiration of Biren Tech's (06082) lock-up yesterday, its share price plunged by over 15%. Kingston Lin expects that the three shares unlocking next week may follow in its footsteps, with their share prices under short-term pressure. However, he emphasised that investors should focus on the liquidity of the shares after the lock-up expires.
In the case of Zhipu and Iluvatar CoreX, their liquidity will only increase from around 5% to approximately 10% after the lock-up expires, which is believed to have a limited impact on their share prices. Investors interested in buying could wait for the share prices to pull back due to the lock-up expiration to accumulate in tranches, as they are expected to rebound after a short-term drop. Conversely, MINIMAX will face a nearly 10-fold increase in liquidity after its lock-up expires, which Kingston Lin expects will deal a heavy blow to its share price.
He also mentioned that although MINIMAX features AI video generation technology as its selling point, this technology currently suffers from severe homogenisation and fierce competition in the market, making a price war inevitable in the future. Furthermore, he pointed out that MINIMAX's fatal flaw lies in its lack of self-built computing power centres; the company currently relies heavily on leasing third-party computing services such as Alibaba Cloud, making its operating costs extremely difficult to control independently. Kingston Lin analysed that the inability to be self-sufficient on the computing power foundation means the company lacks a truly defensive "moat" in its long-term business expansion. Therefore, he strongly advises investors to short the stock and avoid blindly bottom-fishing when the share price drops after the lock-up expires.
"Kingston Lin: Do not let guard down as HSI rebounds slightly, watch Hong Kong stock performance during August earnings season"
As rate hike expectations cooled, the HSI showed signs of improvement this week and continued to rise today. Kingston Lin, a director of the Hong Kong Institute of Financial Analysts and Professional Commentators Limited, told ET Net News Agency that with the end of the half-year window, market capital is undergoing new deployments. Furthermore, following recent reports that Meta is actively planning to enter the cloud computing market with plans to sell its excess artificial intelligence computing power and model usage rights, AI hardware stocks have been affected, causing capital to rotate into traditional technology stocks among the heavyweights of the HSI, which in turn drove the HSI upwards. In addition, after the US announced its latest non-farm payroll figures, the market expects a low probability of a rate hike in September, causing the US dollar to weaken and capital to subsequently flow into Hong Kong stocks, benefiting the HSI.
Kingston Lin pointed out that although the HSI has shown some signs of improvement over the past two days, it does not mean there are no worries for the third quarter, and investors must absolutely not let their guard down. The most critical aspect now is to observe whether the HSI can firmly hold the two support levels of 23,000 and 22,500. If it successfully holds these levels, the next step is to pay attention to the earnings season in August; if Hong Kong stocks can still stabilise at that time, the index could look up towards the 24,000 level and around the 20-day moving average. Kingston Lin emphasised that although the news of Meta selling computing power slightly shook the stock market to a certain extent, he maintains that data centres are definitely not saturated yet, market demand for computing power remains, and AI hardware stocks are still the dominant trend in the long run.
"Post-lock-up trends require attention to liquidity"
July not only marks the conclusion of the half-year window but also brings a wave of lock-up expirations for newly listed stocks. Next week, three popular stocks will face their lock-up expiration periods, namely Zhipu (02513), MINIMAX (00100), and Iluvatar CoreX (09903). Following the expiration of Biren Tech's (06082) lock-up yesterday, its share price plunged by over 15%. Kingston Lin expects that the three shares unlocking next week may follow in its footsteps, with their share prices under short-term pressure. However, he emphasised that investors should focus on the liquidity of the shares after the lock-up expires.
In the case of Zhipu and Iluvatar CoreX, their liquidity will only increase from around 5% to approximately 10% after the lock-up expires, which is believed to have a limited impact on their share prices. Investors interested in buying could wait for the share prices to pull back due to the lock-up expiration to accumulate in tranches, as they are expected to rebound after a short-term drop. Conversely, MINIMAX will face a nearly 10-fold increase in liquidity after its lock-up expires, which Kingston Lin expects will deal a heavy blow to its share price.
He also mentioned that although MINIMAX features AI video generation technology as its selling point, this technology currently suffers from severe homogenisation and fierce competition in the market, making a price war inevitable in the future. Furthermore, he pointed out that MINIMAX's fatal flaw lies in its lack of self-built computing power centres; the company currently relies heavily on leasing third-party computing services such as Alibaba Cloud, making its operating costs extremely difficult to control independently. Kingston Lin analysed that the inability to be self-sufficient on the computing power foundation means the company lacks a truly defensive "moat" in its long-term business expansion. Therefore, he strongly advises investors to short the stock and avoid blindly bottom-fishing when the share price drops after the lock-up expires.
